Machine learning-based scoring system to predict in-hospital outcomes in patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: The evolution of patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is still hard to predict, even after several months of dealing with the pandemic. AIMS: To develop and validate a score to predict outcomes in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. METHODS: All consecutive adults hospitalized for COVID-19 from February to April 2020 were included in a nationwide observational study. Primary composite outcome was transfer to an intensive care unit from an emergency department or conventional ward, or in-hospital death. A score that estimates the risk of experiencing the primary outcome was constructed from a derivation cohort using stacked LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator), and was tested in a validation cohort. RESULTS: Among 2873 patients analysed (57.9% men; 66.6±17.0 years), the primary outcome occurred in 838 (29.2%) patients: 551 (19.2%) were transferred to an intensive care unit; and 287 (10.0%) died in-hospital without transfer to an intensive care unit. Using stacked LASSO, we identified 11 variables independently associated with the primary outcome in multivariable analysis in the derivation cohort (n=2313), including demographics (sex), triage vitals (body temperature, dyspnoea, respiratory rate, fraction of inspired oxygen, blood oxygen saturation) and biological variables (pH, platelets, C-reactive protein, aspartate aminotransferase, estimated glomerular filtration rate). The Critical COVID-19 France (CCF) risk score was then developed, and displayed accurate calibration and discrimination in the derivation cohort, with C-statistics of 0.78 (95% confidence interval 0.75-0.80). The CCF risk score performed significantly better (i.e. higher C-statistics) than the usual critical care risk scores. CONCLUSIONS: The CCF risk score was built using data collected routinely at hospital admission to predict outcomes in patients with COVID-19. This score holds promise to improve early triage of patients and allocation of healthcare resources.

Cardiovascular Characteristics and Outcomes of Young Patients with COVID-19.

Although 18-45-year-old (y-o) patients represent a significant proportion of patients hospitalized for COVID-19, data concerning the young population remain scarce. The Critical COVID France (CCF) study was an observational study including consecutive patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in 24 centers between 26 February and 20 April 2020. The primary composite outcome included transfer to the intensive care unit (ICU) or in-hospital death. Secondary outcomes were cardiovascular (CV) complications. Among 2868 patients, 321 (11.2%) patients were in the 18-45-y-o range. In comparison with older patients, young patients were more likely to have class 2 obesity and less likely to have hypertension, diabetes and dyslipidemia. The primary outcome occurred less frequently in 18-45-y-o patients in comparison with patients > 45 years old (y/o) (16.8% vs. 30.7%, p < 0.001). The 18-45-y-o patients presented with pericarditis (2.2% vs. 0.5%, p = 0.003) and myocarditis (2.5% vs. 0.6%, p = 0.002) more frequently than patients >45 y/o. Acute heart failure occurred less frequently in 18-45-y-o patients (0.9% vs. 7.2%, p < 0.001), while thrombotic complications were similar in young and older patients. Whereas both transfer to the ICU and in-hospital death occurred less frequently in young patients, COVID-19 seemed to have a particular CV impact in this population.

Prognostic value of right ventricular dilatation in patients with COVID-19: a multicentre study.

AIMS: Although cardiac involvement has prognostic significance in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and is associated with severe forms, few studies have explored the prognostic role of transthoracic echocardiography (TTE). We investigated the link between TTE parameters and prognosis in COVID-19. METHODS AND RESULTS: Consecutive patients with COVID-19 admitted to 24 French hospitals were retrospectively included. Comprehensive data, including clinical and biological parameters, were recorded at admission. Focused TTE was performed during hospitalization, according to clinical indication. Patients were followed for a primary composite outcome of death or transfer to intensive care unit (ICU) during hospitalization. Among 2878 patients, 445 (15%) underwent TTE. Most of these had cardiovascular risk factors, a history of cardiovascular disease, and were on cardiovascular treatments. Dilatation and dysfunction were observed in, respectively, 12% (48/412) and 23% (102/442) of patients for the left ventricle, and in 12% (47/407) and 16% (65/402) for the right ventricle (RV). Primary composite outcome occurred in 44% (n = 196) of patients [9% (n = 42) for death without ICU transfer and 35% (n = 154) for admission to ICU]. RV dilatation was the only TTE parameter associated with the primary outcome. After adjustment, male sex [hazard ratio (HR) 1.56, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.09 - 2.25; P = 0.02], higher body mass index (HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.02 - 1.18; P = 0.01), anticoagulation (HR 0.53, 95% CI 0.33 - 0.86; P = 0.01), and RV dilatation (HR 1.66, 95% CI 1.05 - 2.64; P = 0.03) remained independently associated with the primary outcome. CONCLUSION: Echocardiographic evaluation of RV dilatation could be useful for assessing risk of severe COVID-19 developing in hospitalized patients.

History of heart failure in patients with coronavirus disease 2019: Insights from a French registry.

BACKGROUND: Although cardiovascular comorbidities seem to be strongly associated with worse outcomes in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), data regarding patients with preexisting heart failure are limited. AIMS: To investigate the incidence, characteristics and clinical outcomes of patients with COVID-19 with a history of heart failure with preserved or reduced ejection fraction. METHODS: We performed an observational multicentre study including all patients hospitalized for COVID-19 across 24 centres in France from 26 February to 20 April 2020. The primary endpoint was a composite of in-hospital death or need for orotracheal intubation. RESULTS: Overall, 2809 patients (mean age 66.4±16.9years) were included. Three hundred and seventeen patients (11.2%) had a history of heart failure; among them, 49.2% had heart failure with reduced ejection fraction and 50.8% had heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. COVID-19 severity at admission, defined by a quick sequential organ failure assessment score>1, was similar in patients with versus without a history of heart failure. Before and after adjustment for age, male sex, cardiovascular comorbidities and quick sequential organ failure assessment score, history of heart failure was associated with the primary endpoint (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.41, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.06-1.90; P=0.02). This result seemed to be mainly driven by a history of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HR: 1.61, 95% CI: 1.13-2.27; P=0.01) rather than heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HR: 1.19, 95% CI: 0.79-1.81; P=0.41). CONCLUSIONS: History of heart failure in patients with COVID-19 was associated with a higher risk of in-hospital death or orotracheal intubation. These findings suggest that patients with a history of heart failure, particularly heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, should be considered at high risk of clinical deterioration.

Characteristics and impact of cardiovascular comorbidities on coronavirus disease 2019 in women: A multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although women account for up to half of patients hospitalized for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), no specific data have been reported in this population. AIMS: To assess the burden and impact of cardiovascular comorbidities in women with COVID-19. METHODS: All consecutive patients hospitalized for COVID-19 across 24 hospitals from 26 February to 20 April 2020 were included. The primary composite outcome was transfer to an intensive care unit or in-hospital death. RESULTS: Among 2878 patients, 1212 (42.1%) were women. Women were older (68.3±18.0 vs. 65.4±16.0 years; P<0.001), but had less prevalent cardiovascular comorbidities than men. Among women, 276 (22.8%) experienced the primary outcome, including 161 (13.3%) transfers to an intensive care unit and 115 (9.5%) deaths without transfer to intensive care unit. The rate of in-hospital death or transfer to an intensive care unit was lower in women versus men (crude hazard ratio [HR]: 0.62, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53-0.72). Age (adjusted HR: 1.05 per 5-year increase, 95% CI: 1.01-1.10), body mass index (adjusted HR: 1.06 per 2-unit increase, 95% CI: 1.02-1.10), chronic kidney disease (adjusted HR: 1.57, 95% CI: 1.11-2.22) and heart failure (adjusted HR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.04-2.22) were independently associated with the primary outcome in women. Elevated B-type natriuretic peptide/N-terminal prohormone of B-type natriuretic peptide (adjusted HR: 2.41, 95% CI: 1.70-3.44) and troponin (adjusted HR: 2.00, 95% CI: 1.39-2.88) concentrations at admission were also associated with the primary outcome, even in women free of previous coronary artery disease or heart failure. CONCLUSIONS: Although female sex was associated with a lower risk of transfer to an intensive care unit or in-hospital death, COVID-19 remained associated with considerable morbimortality in women, especially in those with cardiovascular diseases.

Anticoagulation Before Hospitalization Is a Potential Protective Factor for COVID-19: Insight From a French Multicenter Cohort Study.

Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a respiratory disease associated with thrombotic outcomes with coagulation and endothelial disorders. Based on that, several anticoagulation guidelines have been proposed. We aimed to determine whether anticoagulation therapy modifies the risk of developing severe COVID-19. Methods and Results Patients with COVID-19 initially admitted in medical wards of 24 French hospitals were included prospectively from February 26 to April 20, 2020. We used a Poisson regression model, Cox proportional hazard model, and matched propensity score to assess the effect of anticoagulation on outcomes (intensive care unit admission or in-hospital mortality). The study enrolled 2878 patients with COVID-19, among whom 382 (13.2%) were treated with oral anticoagulation therapy before hospitalization. After adjustment, anticoagulation therapy before hospitalization was associated with a better prognosis with an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.55-0.88). Analyses performed using propensity score matching confirmed that anticoagulation therapy before hospitalization was associated with a better prognosis, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.43 (95% CI, 0.29-0.63) for intensive care unit admission and adjusted hazard ratio of 0.76 (95% CI, 0.61-0.98) for composite criteria intensive care unit admission or death. In contrast, therapeutic or prophylactic low- or high-dose anticoagulation started during hospitalization were not associated with any of the outcomes. Conclusions Anticoagulation therapy used before hospitalization in medical wards was associated with a better prognosis in contrast with anticoagulation initiated during hospitalization. Anticoagulation therapy introduced in early disease could better prevent COVID-19-associated coagulopathy and endotheliopathy, and lead to a better prognosis.

D-dimer at hospital admission for COVID-19 are associated with in-hospital mortality, independent of venous thromboembolism: Insights from a French multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been associated with coagulation disorders, in particular high concentrations of D-dimer, and increased frequency of venous thromboembolism. AIM: To explore the association between D-dimer at admission and in-hospital mortality in patients hospitalised for COVID-19, with or without symptomatic venous thromboembolism. METHODS: From 26 February to 20 April 2020, D-dimer concentration at admission and outcomes (in-hospital mortality and venous thromboembolism) of patients hospitalised for COVID-19 in medical wards were retrospectively analysed in a multicenter study in 24 French hospitals. RESULTS: Among 2878 patients enrolled in the study, 1154 (40.1%) patients had D-dimer measurement at admission. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis identified a D-dimer concentration>1128ng/mL as the best cut-off value for in-hospital mortality (area under the curve 64.9%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 60-69), with a sensitivity of 71.1% (95% CI 62-78) and a specificity of 55.6% (95% CI 52-58), which did not differ in the subgroup of patients with venous thromboembolism during hospitalisation. Among 545 (47.2%) patients with D-dimer concentration>1128ng/mL at admission, 86 (15.8%) deaths occurred during hospitalisation. After adjustment, in Cox proportional hazards and logistic regression models, D-dimer concentration>1128ng/mL at admission was also associated with a worse prognosis, with an odds ratio of 3.07 (95% CI 2.05-4.69; P<0.001) and an adjusted hazard ratio of 2.11 (95% CI 1.31-3.4; P<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: D-dimer concentration>1128ng/mL is a relevant predictive factor for in-hospital mortality in patients hospitalised for COVID-19 in a medical ward, regardless of the occurrence of venous thromboembolism during hospitalisation.

Characteristics and outcomes of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in France: The Critical COVID-19 France (CCF) study.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to a public health crisis. Only limited data are available on the characteristics and outcomes of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in France. AIMS: To investigate the characteristics, cardiovascular complications and outcomes of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in France. METHODS: The Critical COVID-19 France (CCF) study is a French nationwide study including all consecutive adults with a diagnosis of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2) infection hospitalized in 24 centres between 26 February and 20 April 2020. Patients admitted directly to intensive care were excluded. Clinical, biological and imaging parameters were systematically collected at hospital admission. The primary outcome was in-hospital death. RESULTS: Of 2878 patients included (mean±SD age 66.6±17.0 years, 57.8% men), 360 (12.5%) died in the hospital setting, of which 7 (20.7%) were transferred to intensive care before death. The majority of patients had at least one (72.6%) or two (41.6%) cardiovascular risk factors, mostly hypertension (50.8%), obesity (30.3%), dyslipidaemia (28.0%) and diabetes (23.7%). In multivariable analysis, older age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.06; P<0.001), male sex (HR 1.69, 95% CI 1.11-2.57; P=0.01), diabetes (HR 1.72, 95% CI 1.12-2.63; P=0.01), chronic kidney failure (HR 1.57, 95% CI 1.02-2.41; P=0.04), elevated troponin (HR 1.66, 95% CI 1.11-2.49; P=0.01), elevated B-type natriuretic peptide or N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (HR 1.69, 95% CI 1.0004-2.86; P=0.049) and quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score ≥2 (HR 1.71, 95% CI 1.12-2.60; P=0.01) were independently associated with in-hospital death. CONCLUSIONS: In this large nationwide cohort of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in France, cardiovascular comorbidities and risk factors were associated with a substantial morbi-mortality burden.

Association of diabetes and outcomes in patients with COVID-19: Propensity score-matched analyses from a French retrospective cohort.

BACKGROUND: Our study aimed to compare the clinical outcomes of patients with and without diabetes admitted to hospital with COVID-19. METHODS: This retrospective multicentre cohort study comprised 24 tertiary medical centres in France, and included 2851 patients (675 with diabetes) hospitalized for COVID-19 between 26 February and 20 April 2020. A propensity score-matching (PSM) method (1:1 matching including patients' characteristics, medical history, vital statistics and laboratory results) was used to compare patients with and without diabetes (n = 603 per group). The primary outcome was admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) and/or in-hospital death. RESULTS: After PSM, all baseline characteristics were well balanced between those with and without diabetes: mean age was 71.2 years; 61.8% were male; and mean BMI was 29 kg/m2. A history of cardiovascular, chronic kidney and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases were found in 32.8%, 22.1% and 6.4% of participants, respectively. The risk of experiencing the primary outcome was similar in patients with or without diabetes [hazard ratio (HR): 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.95-1.41; P = 0.14], and was 1.29 (95% CI: 0.97-1.69) for in-hospital death, 1.26 (95% CI: 0.9-1.72) for death with no transfer to an ICU and 1.14 (95% CI: 0.88-1.47) with transfer to an ICU. CONCLUSION: In this retrospective study cohort of patients hospitalized for COVID-19, diabetes was not significantly associated with a higher risk of severe outcomes after PSM. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04344327.